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Cable TV and Belief in Conspiracy Theories

4/8/2013

18 Comments

 
I’m sure you’ve heard the news that last week a poll from Public Policy Polling found a disturbing number of Americans believe in conspiracies large and small. Several of their findings underscore just why it’s so important to continue critically examining the claims made by cable television documentaries, popular press books, and websites about aliens and ancient mysteries.

Before we take a look at the poll, let’s issue a couple of caveats: First, this poll was specifically designed to test political differences on conspiracy theories, so the methodology may prevent this from being extrapolated from members of political parties to the general population. The survey looked at 2012 presidential election voters only, and this may or may not accurately represent the remainder of the population who did not or could not vote. Second, the poll asked about a belief in aliens, but it did not specify whether this meant a belief in extraterrestrial life somewhere in the universe (a scientific probability) or a belief in an advanced species such as the Greys coming to sodomize sleeping Americans (scientifically doubtful). Therefore, there is no way to parse the 29% of respondents who said they believe in aliens.

That said, let’s look at the results:

  • One in five voters (up to 66 million Americans, if the results can be extrapolated), believes that the U.S. government is covering up a 1947 UFO crash in Roswell, New Mexico. This situation is not helped by the fact that H2’s America’s Book of Secrets made this exact claim last Friday night, just the latest in an endless media campaign that primes the public to believe in UFOs. Oddly, more conservatives than liberals believe in the UFO cover up.
  • More than one in four voters (as many as 88 million Americans), believes that a secret society such as the Freemasons is conspiring to take over world governments. This situation is not helped by Scott Wolter’s America Unearthed, which proposes a 2,000-year conspiracy by Freemasons to restore the goddess-worshipping Grail Kings as the true owners of America. More conservatives believe in the secret society takeover than disbelieve (35% to 32%).
  • Seven percent of voters (as many as 22 million Americans) believe the moon landing was faked, a claim that has appeared more than once on Ancient Aliens, though, to be fair, in competition with other ideas that the astronauts actually went to the moon to explore alien archaeological sites.
  • Four percent of voters (up to 12.6 million Americans) believe that shape-shifting reptilian creatures are running the governments of the world. This idea comes from David Icke, who simply replaced “Jews” with “lizard people” in adapting anti-Semitic and anti-Masonic world government conspiracies, the same conspiracies Scott Wolter attributes to a Templar-Freemason cult and Ancient Aliens attributes to an alien-Freemason alliance.
  • Fifteen percent of voters (up to 47 million Americans) believe that the government embeds mind control waves in television signals. Presumably these are not the same people who watch H2, unless the mind control waves only exist in over-the-air signals.

And this only represents the findings that directly correlate with the cable documentary series I cover on this blog. Additional conspiracies involving fluoride, contrails, 9/11, and vaccines have similar or greater belief levels.

When you compare these numbers against the ratings for cable television series—the 1 million who watch America Unearthed or the 2.2 million who watched Ancient Aliens at its height—you begin to see that these shows represent only a fraction of the audience for their ideas. While it may seem silly to spend time debunking a show with just one million viewers (0.3% of the American population), when you realize the sheer number of people—tens of millions!—who are open to such ideas, it no longer seems quite so quixotic and exercise.

It is surely no coincidence that the conspiracy theories that Americans believe in their tens of millions are alternative ideas heavily promoted in the popular media. Conspiracy theories that do not garner significant media attention, such as the idea that cats are aliens who enslaved humans (yes, that’s a thing), that the earth is hollow, or that Saddam Hussein had an ancient alien Stargate, do not find belief levels approaching those of ideas seen weekly on television, discussed heavily online, or promoted in alternative history books.

As I’ve said before, the popular media do a great disservice to science by taking these numbers as confirmation that these topics sell. Instead, the numbers show us that people will believe what the media and the culture tells them could be true. Major book publishers simply refuse to publish books that openly doubt conspiracy theories. It’s happened to me, and it’s happened to other authors: We are told by publishers that we need to “leave the door open” for aliens, Atlantis, etc., or we can kiss our book deals good-bye. Television is worse. Aside from PBS and scattered lights on cable, the TV dial is wall-to-wall anti-science conspiracy nonsense.

Academics don’t help the situation, though it is not their fault. Scientists, historians, and archaeologists are busy actually generating new knowledge, and they don’t have the time or the energy (with some exceptions) to fight this battle every day—and due to the constraints of their jobs, their publications don’t speak to popular audiences and thus have little impact outside academia. What historical truth needs is more popularizers, people who can interpret the work of academics for people who are interested but not specialists, people who can make history interesting and show that the truth is more fascinating than lies.

Because of the decisions made by publishers a few decades ago to give up on popularizers by professionalizing book writing to the point that Ph.D. is now considered a prerequisite to publish “serious” books (mostly because they write the way elite critics enjoy and have university jobs, so they don’t expect to be paid up front), the much of the popular history category has fallen to “For Dummies” books and alternative history conspiracy theorists. It’s not absolute, of course; many journalists and other writers produce history books aimed at popular audiences each year, but the trend toward dividing books more and more cleanly between highbrow, academic work and lowbrow, popular work is unmistakable. The old-fashioned idea of the “middlebrow,” books for smart people who were engaged but non-experts, has all but vanished.

Could you imagine a Barbara Tuchman today? It’s getting hard to do. Can you believe that there used to be a time when science and history documentaries aired on network television? Today broadcast networks can’t even remember a time when they used to show alternative history documentaries. Even cable has exiled real science and real history to the outer limits of its schedule, convinced that audiences actively run from truth. In truth, though, the media have trained the audience to expect less, and the audience responded.

The decline of the middlebrow forces larger numbers of people to choose between highbrow and lowbrow. For some, they will move up to academic history, but it’s a hard sell since academic work can be dry, highly specialized, and hard for non-specialists to master. It drives larger numbers of people who won’t or can’t engage with academic history into the arms of conspiracy writers, the only people left who talk to them as fellow-travelers on a voyage of adventure.

Publishers and TV networks, seeing this problem of their own making, take it for confirmation that their gutting of the middlebrow was well-advised. And the cycle continues.

18 Comments
Coridan Miller
4/8/2013 08:17:41 am

" What historical truth needs is more popularizers, people who can interpret the work of academics for people who are interested but not specialists, people who can make history interesting and show that the truth is more fascinating than lies."

Perhaps a 24 hour cable channel devoted to historical documentaries!

Reply
The Other J.
4/8/2013 08:43:45 am

"Perhaps a 24 hour cable channel devoted to historical documentaries!"

I remember when The Learning Channel was something like that. They also showed these fantastic documentaries on great works of literature that worked in recreated footage or stock footage from filmed versions of the books -- Catch-22 was a good one.

Reality TV seems to have wiped all that off the board. When the network doesn't have to pay for professional actors, a variety of sets, and the team of writers that would be required for something like a Catch-22 doc, the network saves bankloads of cash.

Reply
B L
4/8/2013 08:54:14 am

Agreed, Coridan. H2 proves that people are interested in historical subject matter (most viewers believe what they are seeing is accurate because it is on the History channel). If a production company would make historically accurate documentaries in the style of America Unearthed they might be very successful. Academics need to speak to the common man if they don't want these ancient alien nut-jobs to overtake them in the popular culture. I think continued encouragement of pretentiousness and elitism amongst the learned can perpetuate a sense of conspiracy and secrecy to the uninformed.

Reply
Jon B
4/8/2013 11:41:34 am

4% of respondents think it would be hilarious to tell a pollster that they believe Lizard People secretly run the government.

Reply
John R
4/8/2013 12:40:57 pm

My bad.

Reply
Cathleen Anderson
4/8/2013 02:50:01 pm

Science and Discovery do have some decent programming. One of my favorites is Mythbusters.

Reply
charlie
4/8/2013 03:13:12 pm

TLC used to have actual programs one could learn from. Discovery also used to have real science programs. Yes, "Mythbusters" is fun and you can learn a bit from it.
A&E actually had a program "Sunday with the Arts" once upon a time that was quite good. The "History" channel originally did real history some times although they became the "World War Two" or "Hitler" TV soon after, just before they got into the "alternate" garbage. PBS has even declined in my opinion, though they still do good things like "Nature" and my favorite, "Nova".
TV has become a vast wasteland and the US of A has suffered from this. Of course the main reason, some say the only reason, for a TV channel to exist is to sell adverts, most likely true, but still, a shame in my opinion. Good old US of A, driven by the almighty dollar.
FYI, I served honorably as a US Marine and did a tour in Vietnam so do not think of me as some "liberal" sort. I refuse to be a member/follower of either "animal" party (donkey/elephant).

Reply
Thane
4/8/2013 04:14:16 pm

One of the worst things that happened to journalism was the advent of the 24 hour news channel.

With the increase of channels (on cable and satellite, not to mention what the Web can offer) has resulted in too many channels and not enough quality content.

So, channels go for the filler. The lowest cost items that will generate the highest ratings per dollar spent.

Another thing to consider is the lazy factor. People watch these channels because they are there and there is "nothing else on." The channels make money even if they have a small audience because subscribers have to pay for them because they bought the tier.

eh,,,you know all this. There's no point in flogging the dead horse.

Reply
Gunn
4/9/2013 03:27:14 am

"What historical truth needs is more popularizers, people who can interpret the work of academics for people who are interested but not specialists, people who can make history interesting and show that the truth is more fascinating than lies."

Yes, this is a lofty and possibly profitable aim, re-telling history truth in a form offering better, perhaps more interesting consumption. One way of doing this is by examining and contrasting history truth with alternative history, to entertain and educate. I see that this is what the blog host is doing...quite aggressively.

"The truth is more fascinating than lies."

Who famously asked, "What is truth?"

What an audacious question.

Why? Because truth is where one finds it. But, of course, any body of truth is expansive and can be enhanced with fresh, new evidence.

I recognize that this forum may at times offer readers the opportunity of examining new evidence, which can help in the search for additional history truth. Here is an operative quote, for both the blog host (aka Mr. Columbus, chuckle) and myself:

"How can I possibly put a new idea in your heads, if I do not first remove your delusions." - From Doctor Pinero

Reply
Gunn
4/9/2013 03:54:36 am

This is from gotquestions.org:
_________________________

A Proposed Definition of Truth

In defining truth, it is first helpful to note what truth is not:

• Truth is not simply whatever works. This is the philosophy of pragmatism – an ends-vs.-means-type approach. In reality, lies can appear to “work,” but they are still lies and not the truth.
• Truth is not simply what is coherent or understandable. A group of people can get together and form a conspiracy based on a set of falsehoods where they all agree to tell the same false story, but it does not make their presentation true.
• Truth is not what makes people feel good. Unfortunately, bad news can be true.
• Truth is not what the majority says is true. Fifty-one percent of a group can reach a wrong conclusion.
• Truth is not what is comprehensive. A lengthy, detailed presentation can still result in a false conclusion.
• Truth is not defined by what is intended. Good intentions can still be wrong.
• Truth is not how we know; truth is what we know.
• Truth is not simply what is believed. A lie believed is still a lie.
• Truth is not what is publicly proved. A truth can be privately known (for example, the location of buried treasure).
__________________________

I like that last one!

Reply
Paul Cargile
4/9/2013 05:59:09 am

Truth also doesn't care whether you believe it or not.

Gunn
4/9/2013 08:08:14 am

Of course that depends on what kind of truth one is talking about, whether capitalized or not. With a cap, Truth does care, very much. (Just an observation.)

Christopher Randolph
4/9/2013 06:51:30 am

Jason -

Part of the reason I believe sites such as yours to be valuable is that while a million viewers is 0.3% of the general population, it's a higher % of the mainstream 'active' population. What I'm thinking of here is akin to what the former socioeconomic data collector in me would call the 'dependency ratio,' although not quite that.

Take the 300 million+ population and start stripping out children too young to understand the programming, most of the prison population (what, 2 million now), the enfeebled elderly who've dropped out of mainstream society, people with serious mental disabilities, people lacking enough English to understand the programming, American citizens who are now actually living abroad, the homeless population and so forth.

That million people viewership represents a rather larger % of the population making economic and other decisions for their families, who are socially active, who vote and so forth. I'm abundantly sure the advertising industry has the data. My WAG is that that million is more like 3% of the 'active' American population. Yikes.

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Jason Colavito link
4/9/2013 07:06:16 am

It's certainly true. The total number of voters in 2012 was 129 million, and if 4% believe in reptile people, that's a minimum of 5.2 million people, even before trying to extrapolate to the non-voting population. It's also true that the million people who watch H2 in turn influence those who hear the ideas secondhand, which is probably why those professing belief are several orders of magnitude larger than those who actively watch the programming.

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Matt Mc
4/9/2013 07:52:09 am

I blame John Carpenters THEY LIVE for all reptilian humanoid theories, it was Roddy Pippers compelling performance that did it.

Seriously however it is sad and scary that people really believe this kind of stuff.

RLewis
4/9/2013 02:35:38 pm

Jason, Have you seen similar (recent) studies for Europe and Asian populations? I know UFO belief is pretty prevalent everywhere, but I wonder if other countries buy into the government conspiracy theories.

Reply
Jason Colavito link
4/9/2013 11:25:59 pm

I know that results are similar in Britain, but I haven't seen polls for other places. I know that UFO belief is big in India and China, but I'm not sure about conspiracy theories.

Reply
Summer Seale link
4/10/2013 02:28:57 am

Unfortunately, having lived and worked full time in France (and travelled and lived throughout the UK and the rest of Europe as well), I have to say that I found almost as many Europeans believing in conspiracy theories as Americans. The only difference is that the Europeans don't have the Evangelical/Creationist bent to it. That's the part they laugh at Americans for. But as for simple acceptance that big corporations are controlling things, UFOs actually existing, Illuminati and all sorts of other nonsense, it's nearly the same. This is anecdotal, of course, and I'd love to see a study. The evangelical/religious stuff tends to get replaced more with "spiritual" nonsense. IE: They far more readily believe in ghosts than angels (at least in the UK). I usually consider that there is just as much BS on the left as there is on the right in such matters. It's just that the right in America tends to be far more outspoken about it.

On the European side, however, you also get far more acceptance of Islamist sympathies. There is a rising contingent of creationism in the classrooms in Europe, but it is coming from Muslim immigrants and not from Evangelicals. So, in the guise of multiculturalism, Creationism is seeping back in once more. You also have a tendency to "respect" other people's "indigenous" beliefs, no matter how wacko they truly are.

It's considered bad form in much of Europe to confront people on these issues. They consider it highly impolite, so you can't just go around and debate people on their belief in Islamic creationism, UFOs, government coverups or corporations ruling the world with some elitist group. People tend to be far less confrontational about those subjects there - possibly leading to a more quiet, but growing, acceptance of these things. It's far more likely to hear people confronting these things in the US than it is in Europe most of the time, so these beliefs can grow with very little way of confrontation.

By the way, I'd like to point out that while Creationism is growing in Europe because of Islam, it is *definitely* not yet on the scale of US numbers. So I wouldn't put the two on the same level in society. But the societies are very different so it's very hard to compare at times. And I'd also like to point out that most immigrants from Muslim countries who have been there for 30+ years etc...do not tend to buy into this Islamist stuff. Most of them are integrated. It is mostly the new immigrants or some of their children who have found it harder (or impossible) to integrate into these societies, resorting to Islamist theology as a means of identity.

I'd also like to point out that I currently now live in Israel, and I actually am finding just as many conspiracy theories here as well, only of a different sort. You won't find much in the way of Creationist stuff (unless you go to an ultra-orthodox place, but that is not the majority), but you do get the whole "Barak Obama is really a Muslim" kind of stuff. It can be tacitly accepted to say that this is true by people in all sorts of stripes of society. You also get the whole "Arabs control everything with oil" kind of conspiracies. You don't find much in the way of UFO stuff (not sure why - just doesn't seem to be talked about here, or thought about), but you do get a lot of new-age crap in Tel Aviv - where most people are either atheist or simply looking for "alternative" stuff. IE: Tibetan chanting, crystal crap, far east philosophy and mythology, and all the rest. So this place isn't immune either.

I do, however, see far, *far*, more conspiracy theorist crap coming from the Arab side of society. I have absolutely no idea why that is. I know full well how prevalent conspiracy theories are in Arab societies outside of Israel, but it's disheartening to see Israeli Arabs suffering from much of the same fate. And I'm talking about patriotic Arabs who actually volunteer to serve in the military (they don't have to go - it's a choice for them) and who vote and proudly fly the flag etc.... But talk to them about certain topics and your mind will be blown. Full illuminati stuff going on there.

Sorry for the huge response, I just felt that I ought to talk about it somewhat. Again: it's anecdotal and some may wish to completely contest my findings. That's completely fine. I'd absolutely love to see some data from recent studies as well. But this is what I have encountered in my travels so far over the last several years. =)

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